The latest Commitment of Traders report from the London Robusta coffee market has seen the Speculative Managed Money Sector of this market cut their net long position within the market by 69.59% over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 8th. December: to register a new net long position of 5,992 Lots which is the equivalent of 998,667 bags.  This net long position has most likely been decreased, following the period of mixed but overall softer sideways trade that has since followed.

The Vietnam Customs Authority have reported that Vietnam’s coffee exports for the month of November are down by 8.4% from the previous month, to total 1,395,500 bags. This number proving to be higher than the 1.16 million bags that had been initially forecast for the month’s coffee exports.  The report also states that for the first eleven months of 2020, Vietnam coffee exports are 3% lower than the same period last year at a total of 23,766,667 bags. The report also indicates that the coffee export revenue for the first eleven months of 2020 1.9% lower than the same period last year at a total of around 2.49 billion US Dollars

The January 2021 to March 2021 contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets widened on Friday: to register this at 61.05 usc/Lb. This equates to 50.21% price discount for the London Robusta coffee market.

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to increase by 7,679 bags on Friday, to register these stocks at 1,323,814 bags, with 94.1% of these certified stocks being held in Europe at a total of 1,245,604 bags and the remaining 5.9% being held in the USA at a total 78,210 bags. There was meanwhile a smaller in number 2,125 bags decrease to the number of bags pending grading for this exchange; to register these pending grading stocks at 103,309 bags.

It was a modest firmer day overall on the commodity markets on Friday, to see the overall macro commodity index taking something of a sideways track for the day. The Cocoa and Coffee markets ended the day on a positive note, while the Sugar market ended the day on a softer note. The Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is related to 17 markets is 0.0255% lower; to see this index registered 438.0994.  The day starts with the U.S. Dollar, trading at 1.332 Sterling, at 1.214 the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 5.066 Real. 

The New York and London markets started the day on Friday trading on a modest positive note, both markets quickly dropped back off the highs of the morning trade. As the afternoon progressed the New York market continued on its softer path to see the market settle on a modest positive note, maintaining only some of the earlier gains of the day, while the London market bounced back off the lows of the days trade to see the market settle on a modest positive note for the day.

The London market ended the day on a modest positive note with 64.29% of the earlier gains of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a likewise modest positive note with 22% of the earlier gains of the day intact. This firmer close might inspire some degree of confidence, albeit that the markets fell back from the highs of the day, to possibly set the markets for a follow-through hesitant steady start to early trade today, against the prices set on Friday, as follows:

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT              NEW YORK ARABICA USc/Lb.

JAN 1335 + 9                                                MAR 121.60 + 0.55
MAR   1357 + 6                                                      MAY   123.40 + 0.55
MAY   1366 + 2                                                     JUL 124.95 + 0.60
JUL   1381 + 1                                                      SEP    126.35 + 0.55
SEP    1398 Unch                                                  DEC     127.90 + 0.50
NOV   1415 Unch                                                 MAR    129.35 + 0.40
JAN   1430 Unch                                                  MAY   130.10 + 0.40
MAR   1445 Unch                                                  JUL   130.80 + 0.40