I. & M. Smith (Pty) Ltd. since 1915
Logo

 

I. & M. Smith (Pty) Ltd.

Coffee Market Report

19 Jan 2021

The latest Commitment of Traders report from the New York arabica coffee market has seen the shorter term in nature Managed Money fund sector of this market cut their net long position within this market by 27.02% over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 12th. January; to register a new net long position of 16,097 lots. Meanwhile the longer term in nature Index Fund sector of this market raised their net long position within the market by 9.17%, to register a net long position of 68,446 Lots on the day.

Over the same week, the Non-Commercial Speculative sector of this market cut their net long position within the market by 26.67% to register a new net long position of 16,014 Lots which is the equivalent of 4,539,898 bags. This net long position has most likely been further decreased, following the period of mixed but overall softer sideways trade that has since followed.

The latest Commitment of Traders report from the London Robusta coffee market has seen the Speculative Managed Money Sector of this market switch their net long position within the market over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 12th. January: to register a new net short sold position of 7,173 Lots which is the equivalent of 1,195,500 bags. This net long position has most likely been switched to a new net short sold position, following the period of mixed but overall softer sideways trade that has since followed.

The commodity markets in the U.S.A. were closed yesterday for the Martin Luther King public holiday, which left trade for the London markets thin and lacklustre in nature and including the London coffee market.

The March 2021 to March 2021 contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets widened yesterday: to register this at 67.24 usc/Lb. This equates to 52.47% price discount for the London Robusta coffee market.

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to decrease by 8,592 bags on Friday, to register these stocks at 1,519,310 bags, with 94.5% of these certified stocks being held in Europe at a total of 1,435,034 bags and the remaining 5.5% being held in the USA at a total 84,276 bags. There was meanwhile a smaller in number 6,942 bags increase to the number of bags pending grading for this exchange; to register these pending grading stocks at 132,217 bags.

With the U.S.A. commodity markets off the field of player yesterday, the remaining markets had a quiet day yesterday, but with the overall commodity index for these markets showing a degree of buoyancy. The Gold, Platinum and Palladium markets ended the day on a positive note, while the London Robusta Coffee and Silver markets ended the day on a softer note. The Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is related to 17 markets is 0.6665% lower on Friday; to see this index registered 472.4744. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar, trading at 1.360 Sterling, at 1.209 the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 5.296 Real.

The London market started the day yesterday trading close to par and remained in a narrow range for the limited volume traded throughout the day. The afternoon progressed with the markets holding near unchanged, with the market coming under pressure in late in the day trade and falling back into what would be considered modest negative territory.

The London market ended the day on a softer note with 76.92% of the earlier losses of the day intact, while the New York market was closed for the day. This close does little to indicate direction for the day today, which is may see the markets due for a hesitant near to steady start for early trade today, against the prices set in London yesterday and New York on Friday, as follows:

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                       NEW YORK ARABICA USc/Lb. Close 15/01/2021

MAR 1343 – 10                                                 MAR 128.15 + 0.80
MAY 1353 – 10                                                 MAY 130.25 + 0.85
JUL 1367 – 11                                                   JUL 132.15 + 0.90
SEP 1385 – 12                                                   SEP 134.00 + 0.95
NOV 1404 – 12                                                 DEC 136.00 + 0.95
JAN 1418 – 13                                                   MAR 137.80 + 0.95
MAR 1434 – 13                                                 MAY 138.65 + 0.85
MAY 1451 – 13                                                 JUL 139.35 + 0.75