I. & M. Smith (Pty) Ltd. since 1915
Logo

 

I. & M. Smith (Pty) Ltd.

Coffee Market Report

02 Feb 2017
With the month of January past, the Indonesia government trade data from Sumatra which is the leading coffee producing island within Indonesia, has reported that the islands robusta coffee exports for the month were 51,518 bags or 36.72% higher than the same month in the previous year, at a total of 191,833 bags. However, following the modest export volumes of the month of October, the cumulative exports for the first four months of this new October 2016 to September 2017 coffee year are 45,258 bags or 3.31% lower than the same period in the previous coffee year, at a total of 1,322,477 bags.

The Trade ministry in Brazil have reported that the countries coffee exports for the month of January were near to par on that of the same month last year and registered at 2.50 million bags and slightly above that of the 2.49 million bags reported in exports for the same month in 2016.

The National Coffee Council in Honduras have reported that the countries coffee exports for the month of January recorded 41.60% increase on that of the same month in the previous year, at a total of 821,669 bags. This improved volume has contributed to the countries cumulative coffee exports for the first four months of the present October 2016 to September 2017 coffee year to be 40.60% higher than the same period in the previous coffee year, at a total of 1,410,667 bags.

The May to May contracts arbitrage between the London and New York markets narrowed yesterday, to register this at 50.17 usc/Lb., while this equates to 32.89% price discount for the London robusta coffee market. This relatively narrow arbitrage is now becoming less of an attractive factor for the roasters who have considered robusta coffees to be an opportunist discount component, within their mostly arabica coffee blends.

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to decrease by 1,974 bags yesterday; to register these stocks at 1,295,548 bags. The certified stocks reported a relatively steep increase of 19,593 bags to the number of bags pending grading for this exchange; to register these pending grading stocks at 56,838 bags.

It was an overall positive day for the commodity markets yesterday, while the U.S. Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged after the two-day meetings held this week and concluded in the statement released yesterday. The forward outlook was similarly positively received by the markets and provided an additional boost by improved employment and manufacturing data. It was a mildly firmer day in the energy sector and so too a positive day for Sugar, Cocoa, Coffee, Cotton, Wheat, Corn, Soybean, Silver, Platinum and Palladium, although a softer close for Orange Juice, Copper and Gold on the day. The Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is made up from 17 markets is 0.8069% higher, to see this Index registered at 432.72. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar firmer trading at 1.266 to Sterling and steady at 1.078 to the Euro, while North Sea Oil is steady in early trade and is selling at $ 55.79 per barrel.

The markets started the day yesterday on a positive note in London and a mildly softer start to the day in New York. The morning session continued in limited volume, on a positive note in London and mildly negative stance in New York where the range held within a narrow band toward the afternoon, just below opening levels. The latter day influence of generally positive overall market sentiment, assisted to provide a degree of buoyancy within the New York market to push levels above the line and into positive territory, where fresh buyers were triggered and to introduce stronger volumes to the floor as this market gained upward momentum. The London market still restrained by the Tet New Year holiday in Vietnam and having set the bar in positive territory after a degree of early in the session volatility, flattened out at the higher levels set, toward the latter half of the day. The late afternoon session in New York met with overhead seller pressure, to shed some of the gains of the session toward the close yesterday. The markets finished the day in positive territory, after a buoyant and weighty volume day in New York off the day’s high and a positive close after early volatility and steady afternoon trade in London, to set the close yesterday, as follows:

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT NEW YORK ARABICA USc/Lb.

MAR  2243 + 21                           MAR 150.15 + 0.60
MAY  2257 + 21                           MAY 152.55 + 0.55
JUL    2264 + 20                           JUL   154.85 + 0.50
SEP    2268 + 19                           SEP   157.10 + 0.55
NOV  2269 + 20                           DEC  160.20 + 0.60
JAN   2268 + 20                           MAR 163.10 + 0.65
MAR 2267 + 20                           MAY 164.80 + 0.65
MAY 2269 + 20                            JUL  166.35 + 0.65
JUL   2279 + 20                            SEP  167.80 + 0.65