I. & M. Smith (Pty) Ltd. since 1915
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I. & M. Smith (Pty) Ltd.

Coffee Market Report

19 Apr 2018

There was no striking news coming to the coffee markets yesterday, with physical trade remaining lacklustre and featureless for the present. Albeit that since the dip this week in the New York market there is evidence of consumer industry buyers taking advantage to lock in some opportunist outright price supply contracts, which is likely to impact a bit upon the still significant consumer market stocks.

Meanwhile it would seem that it is something of a waiting game on both sides of the markets, with consumer industries waiting for new lows to step into the market, while within many producer countries there is price resistance to the dictates of the reference prices of the coffee terminal markets. A factor that is tending to buoy the asking price differentials from many producers, which is contributing to the slow nature of the physical coffee trade at present.

The coffee market news is meanwhile dominated by retail issues and with repetitive reports of coffee shops and retailers being on track to environmentally friendly degradable coffee cups, which is of course a good thing. While there is much being said about the Starbucks coffee shop chain planning to close more than 8,000 coffee shops on the afternoon of Tuesday 29th. May in the U.S.A., to train its more than 175,000 partners (employees) on the negative aspects of Racial bias. This following the incident within a Starbucks outlet in Philadelphia and with the delay in this training day being related to the fact that need the time to bring in several experts, to develop an effective training program.

The July 2018 to July 2018 contracts arbitrage between the London and New York markets narrowed yesterday, to register this at 36.77 usc/Lb., while this equates to 31.39% price discount for the London Robusta coffee market.

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to increase by 5,590 bags yesterday; to register these stocks at 1,965,214 bags. There were meanwhile a larger in number 9,678 bags decrease to the number of bags pending grading for this exchange; to register these pending grading stocks at 79,891 bags.

The commodity markets were mostly upbeat in trade yesterday, to see the overall macro commodity index taking a positive track for the day. The Oil, Natural Gas, Sugar, Cocoa, Coffee, Copper, Wheat, Corn, Gold and Silver markets had a day of buoyancy, while the Cotton, Orange Juice and Soybean markets had a softer day’s trade. The Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is made up from 17 markets is 1.13% higher; to see this index registered at 433.50. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar tending softer and trading at 1.420 to Sterling, at 1.238 to the Euro and with the dollar buying 3.380 Brazilian Real, while North Sea Oil is posting some early buoyancy and is selling at US$ 74.45 per barrel.

The London and New York markets started the day yesterday trading hesitantly either side of par and with both markets taking something of an erratically steady sideways track, into the early afternoon trade. As the afternoon progressed both markets and with perhaps some influence coming from the positive nature of the overall macro commodity index, started to add value and move into positive territory. This positive move assisted towards some degree of confidence and with both market adding more value and with the markets taking a positive track through to the end of the day’s trade.

The London market ended the day on a very positive note and with 90% of the earlier gains of the day intact, while the New York market likewise ended the day on a positive note and with 70.3% of the earlier gains of the day intact. This close is likely to inspire some degree of confidence as might the firmer Brazil Real to the dollar hint at lower volumes of price fixation selling due for the New York market from Brazil today, which is likely to assist towards a follow through steady start for the markets today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows:

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                    NEW YORK ARABICA USc/Lb.

MAY 1735 + 20                                              MAY 114.90 + 1.35
JUL 1772 + 18                                                 JUL 117.15 + 1.30
SEP 1752 + 12                                                 SEP 119.30 + 1.20
NOV 1752 + 12                                               DEC 122.80 + 1.20
JAN 1755 + 12                                                MAR 126.35 + 1.20
MAR 1767 + 14                                              MAY 128.70 + 1.10
MAY 1778 + 13                                               JUL 130.85 + 0.95
JUL 1791 + 13                                                 SEP 132.75 + 0.75
SEP 1804 + 13                                                 DEC 135.50 + 0.50
NOV 1809 + 13                                               MAR 138.25 + 0.25